Thursday, November 1, 2007

Why on earth did the feds cut the rates??

The US economy is churning around just fine, and yet they went to cut their rates by 0.25% again!! What happened to the inflation hawk?? More like a No Talk Action Only person again, AS USUAL. There's no economic reason why the Feds should cut the rates, unless they want to bail out the banks, which is the very thing they should not do.

I could only guess 3 reasons why the Feds cut their rates, all of which has nothing to do with the economy:
  1. More transparency on the rates movement, as indicated a few weeks back by Ben Bernake. Since the last meeting they said they would cut rates, so they cut a token rate.
  2. Pressurizing China to raise their yuan
  3. Banks are in whole lot of deeper trouble than we realized

Due to this rate cut, I would say 3 things will happen very soon, within this month:
  1. Oil will hit USD100 and stay there
  2. All major commodities like wheat, corn all will rise further
  3. Possibility of stagflation is more real than ever, and inflation will hit very high this year

I really do hope that they are not making a political move to make China raise their yuan by lowering the USD. If this is so, that means that unless the yuan revalues upwards by a significant margin, US will keep cutting rates. You don't raise, I cut mentality. Maybe I think too much.

I hope the Feds are now happy that they stroke inflation even higher. Inflation hawk??? Yeah right... If we're "lucky", we will see stagflation in 3 years time.

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