According to MTI's figures for y-o-y:
4Q08 | 2008 | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | 2009 | ||
| Overall GDP | -4.2 | 1.4 | -9.4 | -3.1 | 0.6 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
The figures seem to point to a strong recovery in 4Q09 but if you look carefully at the figures, the reason is because the 4Q started off with a very low base. If you look at the quarter to quarter figures, the economy actually shrank 2.8% compared to the 3Q.
Based on the 1H09 figures, it will point to a strong 1H10 growth due to the low base in the previous year. Economic growth for 2010 should at least be more than 2009, but I'm not that optimistic on the revised figures given by MTI. The domestic demand doesn't seem to be there globally and stimulus measures are also now in the process of being withdrawn. 2H10 will be anyone's guess for now. I think that the 6.5% growth given for 2010 is quite optimistic though. I guess we'll know in 1 year's time.
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Revised Budget Deficit for 2009 is only 2.88 billion dollars (1.2% of GDP) compared to the estimated 8.67 billion dollars (3.7% of GDP) due partly to the upward revision of operating revenue.
Budget Deficit for 2010 is estimated to be 7.2 billion dollars (2.6% of GDP). Guess Singapore is spending a lot to boost the business bottom line. Low probability of a double-dip recession.
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